The data shows home prices are increasing nationally. Let's chat to see exactly what’s going on with prices in our neighborhood.

Thinking about buying a home or selling your current one to find a better fit? If so, you might be wondering what's going on with home prices these days. Here's the scoop.

The latest national data from Case-Shiller and the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) shows they’re going up (see graphs below):

As you can see, home prices were rising for most of 2023. But over the course of December and January, they were virtually flat – which is pretty normal for that time of year.

But here's what you need to know now. As of February, when the spring market kicked off, prices were on the rise again.

Home Prices Are Going Up in Most of America's Top Cities

After seeing a jump in home prices nationally in February, you might be wondering if they’re going up in your area, too. While it depends on where you live, prices are rising in 18 of the top 20 cities Case-Shiller reports on in the monthly price index (see chart below):

Most experts also think home prices will keep rising and end the year on a high note. Forbes explains why:

“Even as mortgage rates have reached their highest level since November, persistent demand coupled with limited housing supply are key drivers pushing home values upward.”

How This Impacts You

• For Buyers: If you’re ready, willing, and able to buy a home, purchasing before prices go up even more might be a smart choice, since home values are expected to keep climbing.
• For Sellers: Prices are going up because there still aren’t enough homes available for sale right now compared to today’s buyer demand. So, if you work with an agent to price your house right, you might receive multiple offers and sell quickly. 

Thinking about buying a home or selling your current one to find a better fit?

The data shows home prices are increasing nationally. Chat with a local real estate agent to see exactly what’s going on with prices in your neighborhood.

Every time a home is sold, it really helps out the local economy. If you’re ready to move, let’s get in touch. It won’t just change your life—it’ll also do a lot of good for the whole community.

If you're thinking of buying or selling a house, it's important to know it doesn't just impact you—it helps out the local economy and your community, too.

Every year, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) puts out a report that breaks down the financial impact that comes from people buying and selling homes (see visual below):

When a house is sold, it really boosts the local economy. That’s because of all the people needed to build, fix up, and sell homes. Robert Dietz, Chief Economist at the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), explains how the housing industry adds jobs to a community:

“. . . housing is a significant job creator. In fact, for every single-family home built, enough economic activity is generated to sustain three full-time jobs for a year . . .”

It makes sense that housing creates a lot of jobs because so many different kinds of work are involved in the industry.

Think about all the people involved with selling a house—city officials, contractors, lawyers, real estate agents, specialists, etc. Everyone has a job to do to make your deal go through. So, each transaction is a big help to those who work and live in your community.

Put simply, when you buy or sell a home, you’re helping out your neighbors. So, when you decide to move, you're not just meeting your own needs—you're also doing something good for your community. Just knowing your move helps so many people around you can give you a sense of empowerment as you make your decision this year.

If you're thinking of buying or selling a house, it's important to know it doesn't just impact you—it helps out the local economy and your community, too.

Every time a home is sold, it really helps out the local economy. If you’re ready to move, get in touch with a local real estate agent. It won’t just change your life—it’ll also do a lot of good for the whole community.

If you have questions about what’s happening in the housing market and what that means for you, let’s connect.

You may have heard mortgage rates are going to stay a bit higher for longer than originally expected. And if you’re wondering why, the answer lies in the latest economic data. Here’s a quick overview of what’s happening with mortgage rates and what experts say is ahead.

Economic Factors That Impact Mortgage Rates

When it comes to mortgage rates, things like the job market, the pace of inflation, consumer spending, geopolitical uncertainty, and more all have an impact. Another factor at play is the Federal Reserve (the Fed) and its decisions on monetary policy. And that’s what you may be hearing a lot about right now. Here’s why.

The Fed decided to start raising the Federal Funds Rate to try to slow down the economy (and inflation) in early 2022. That rate impacts how much it costs banks to borrow money from each other. It doesn't determine mortgage rates, but mortgage rates do respond when this happens. And that’s when mortgage rates started to really climb.

And while there’s been a ton of headway seeing inflation come down since then, it still isn’t back to where the Fed wants it to be (2%). The graph below shows inflation since the spike in early 2022, and where we are now compared to their target rate:

As the graph shows, we’re much closer to their goal of 2% inflation than we were in 2022 – but we’re not there yet. It's even inched up a hair over the last 3 months – and that’s having an impact on the Fed’s plans. As Sam Khater, Chief Economist at Freddie Mac, explains:

“Strong incoming economic and inflation data has caused the market to re-evaluate the path of monetary policy, leading to higher mortgage rates.”

Basically, long story short, inflation and its impact on the broader economy are going to be key moving forward. As Greg McBride, Chief Financial Analyst at Bankrate, says:

“It’s the longer-term outlook for economic growth and inflation that have the greatest bearing on the level and direction of mortgage rates. Inflation, inflation, inflation — that’s really the hub on the wheel.”

When Will Mortgage Rates Come Down?

Based on current market data, experts think inflation will be more under control and we still may see the Fed lower the Federal Funds Rate this year. It’ll just be later than originally expected. As Mike Fratantoni, Chief Economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), said in response to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision yesterday:

“The FOMC did not change the federal funds target at its May meeting, as incoming data regarding the strength of the economy and stubbornly high inflation have resulted in a shift in the timing of a first rate cut. We expect mortgage rates to drop later this year, but not as far or as fast as we previously had predicted.”

In the simplest sense, what this says is that mortgage rates should still come down later this year. But timing can shift as new employment and economic data come in, geopolitical uncertainty remains, and more. This is one of the reasons it’s usually not a good strategy to try to time the market. An article in Bankrate gives buyers this advice:

“ . . . trying to time the market is generally a bad idea. If buying a house is the right move for you now, don’t stress about trends or economic outlooks.”

You may have heard mortgage rates are going to stay a bit higher for longer than originally expected.

If you have questions about what’s happening in the housing market and what that means for you, connect with a trusted real estate professional.

If you list during the spring and early summer, you might sell your house quickly and for a higher price. When you’re ready to make the most of today’s seller’s market, let’s get in touch.

Thinking about selling your house? If you are, you might be weighing factors like today’s mortgage rates and your own changing needs to figure out your next move.

Here’s something else to consider. According to the latest Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) from Fannie Mae, the percent of respondents who say it’s a good time to sell is on the rise (see graph below):

Why Are Sellers Feeling so Optimistic?

One reason why is because right now is traditionally the best time of year to sell a house. A recent article from Bankrate says:

“Late spring and early summer are generally considered the best times to sell a house. . . . While today’s rates are relatively high, low inventory is still keeping sellers in the driver’s seat in most markets.”

These are the seasons when most people move. That means buyer demand grows. And because there still aren’t enough homes for sale to meet that demand, sellers see some serious perks. According to Rocket Mortgage:

“Homes that are listed at the end of spring and the beginning of summer typically sell faster at a higher sales price.”

What Does This Mean for You?

More sellers are coming to realize conditions are ripe for a move. And that’s one reason why we’re seeing more homeowners put their homes up for sale. If you think you might want to get in on the action, it’s a good idea to start preparing.

A local real estate agent can help you get your house ready by offering advice on how best to fix it up and make it appealing to buyers in your area.

They also know if you list during the peak buying seasons of spring and early summer, you might sell quickly and for a higher price.

Thinking about selling your house?

If you list during the spring and early summer, you might sell your house quickly and for a higher price. When you're ready to make the most of today's seller’s market, get in touch with a local real estate agent.

Right now, putting the data into context is more important than ever. While the housing market is experiencing an expected rise in foreclosures, it’s nowhere near the crisis levels seen when the housing bubble burst, and that won’t lead to a crash in home prices.

If you’ve been keeping up with the news lately, you’ve probably come across some articles saying the number of foreclosures in today’s housing market is going up. And that may leave you feeling a bit worried about what’s ahead, especially if you owned a home during the housing crash in 2008.

The reality is, while increasing, the data shows a foreclosure crisis is not where the market is headed.

Here’s the latest information stacked against the historical data to put your mind at ease.

The Headlines Make the Increase Sound Dramatic – But It’s Not

The increase the media is calling attention to is a little bit misleading. That’s because it’s comparing the most recent numbers to a time when foreclosures were at historic lows. And that lopsided comparison is making it sound like a much bigger deal than it actually is.

Back in 2020 and 2021, there was a moratorium and forbearance program that helped millions of homeowners avoid foreclosure during challenging times. That’s why numbers for just a few years ago were so low.

Now that the moratorium has come to an end, foreclosures are resuming and that means numbers are rising. But it’s an expected increase, not a surprise, and not a cause for alarm. Just because foreclosure filings are up doesn’t mean the housing market is in trouble.

To prove that to you, let’s expand the comparison out a bit more. Specifically, we’ll go all the way back to the housing crash in 2008 – since that’s what people worry may happen again.

The graph below uses research from ATTOM, a property data provider, to show foreclosure activity has been consistently lower since the crash in 2008:

What the data shows is that things now aren’t anything like they were surrounding the housing crash. The bars in red are when there were over 1 million foreclosure filings a year. In 2023, there were roughly 357,000. That’s a big difference.

A recent article from Bankrate explains one of the reasons things aren’t like they were back then:

“In the years after the housing crash, millions of foreclosures flooded the housing market, depressing prices. That’s not the case now. Most homeowners have a comfortable equity cushion in their homes.”

Basically, foreclosure activity is nothing like it was during the crash. That’s because most homeowners today have enough equity to keep them from going into foreclosure. And that’s a really good thing for homeowners and for the market.

The reality is, the data shows a foreclosure crisis is not where the market is today, or where it’s headed.

If you’ve been keeping up with the news lately, you’ve probably come across some articles saying the number of foreclosures in today’s housing market is going up.

Right now, putting the data into context is more important than ever. While the housing market is experiencing an expected rise in foreclosures, it’s nowhere near the crisis levels seen when the housing bubble burst, and that won’t lead to a crash in home prices.

If you stack these factors up, you’ll see mortgage rates are still projected to come down a bit later this year, home prices are going up at a more moderate pace, and wages are growing quicker than normal. Those trends are a good sign for your ability to afford a home.

Over the past year or so, a lot of people have been talking about how tough it is to buy a home. And while there’s no arguing affordability is still tight, there are signs it’s starting to get a bit better and may improve even more throughout the year. Elijah de la Campa, Senior Economist at Redfin, says:

“We’re slowly climbing our way out of an affordability hole, but we have a long way to go. Rates have come down from their peak and are expected to fall again by the end of the year, which should make homebuying a little more affordable and incentivize buyers to come off the sidelines.”

Here’s a look at the latest data for the three biggest factors that affect home affordability: mortgage rates, home prices, and wages.

1. Mortgage Rates

Mortgage rates have been volatile this year – bouncing around in the upper 6% to low 7% range. That’s still quite a bit higher than where they were a couple of years ago. But there is a sliver of good news.

Despite the recent volatility, rates are still lower than they were last fall when they reached nearly 8%. On top of that, most experts still think they’ll come down some over the course of the year. A recent article from Bright MLS explains:

“Expect rates to come down in the second half of 2024 but remain above 6% this year. Even a modest drop in rates will bring both more buyers and more sellers into the market.” 

Any drop in rates can make a difference for you. When rates go down, you can afford the home you really want more easily because your monthly payment would be lower.

2. Home Prices

The second big factor to think about is home prices. Most experts project they'll keep going up this year, but at a more normal pace. That’s because there are more homes on the market this year, but still not enough for everyone who wants to buy one. The graph below shows the latest 2024 home price forecasts from seven different organizations:

These forecasts are actually good news for you because it means the prices aren't likely to shoot up sky high like they did during the pandemic. That doesn’t mean they’re going to fall – they'll just rise at a slower pace.

3. Wages

One factor helping affordability right now is the fact that wages are rising. The graph below uses data from the Federal Reserve to show how wages have been growing over time:

Check out the blue dotted line. That shows how wages typically rise. If you look at the right side of the graph, you'll see wages are climbing even faster than normal right now.

Here’s how this helps you. If your income has increased, it's easier to afford a home because you don't have to spend as big of a percentage of your paycheck on your monthly mortgage payment.

Over the past year or so, a lot of people have been talking about how tough it is to buy a home.

If you stack these factors up, you’ll see mortgage rates are still projected to come down a bit later this year, home prices are going up at a more moderate pace, and wages are growing quicker than normal. Those trends are a good sign for your ability to afford a home.

Even though you want to bring in top dollar when you sell, setting the asking price too high may deter buyers and slow down the sales process.

Let’s connect to find the right price for your house, so we can maximize your profit and still draw in eager buyers willing to make competitive offers.

If you’re trying to sell your house, you may be looking at this spring season as the sweet spot – and you’re not wrong. We’re still in a seller’s market because there are so few homes for sale right now. And historically, this is the time of year when more buyers move, and competition ticks up. That makes this an exciting time to put up that for sale sign.

But while conditions are great for sellers like you, you’ll still want to be strategic when it comes time to set your asking price. That’s because pricing your house too high may actually cost you in the long run.

The Downside of Overpricing Your House

The asking price for your house sends a message to potential buyers. From the moment they see your listing, the price and the photos are what’s going to make the biggest first impression. And, if it’s priced too high, you may turn people away. As an article from U.S. News Real Estate says:

“Even in a hot market where there are more buyers than houses available for sale, buyers aren't going to pay attention to a home with an inflated asking price.”

That’s because no homebuyer wants to pay more than they have to, especially not today. Many are already feeling the pinch on their budget due to ongoing home price appreciation and today’s mortgage rates. And if they think your house is overpriced, they may write it off without even stepping foot in the front door, or simply won’t make an offer if they think it’s priced too high.

If that happens, it’s going to take longer to sell. And ideally you don’t want to have to think about doing a price drop to try to re-ignite interest in your house. Why? Some buyers will see the price cut as a red flag and wonder why the price was reduced, or they’ll think something is wrong with the house the longer it sits. As an article from Forbes explains:

“It’s not only the price of an overpriced home that turns buyers off. There’s also another negative component that kicks in. . . . if your listing just sits there and accumulates days on the market, it will not be a good look. . . . buyers won’t necessarily ask anyone what’s wrong with the home. They’ll just assume that something is indeed wrong, and will skip over the property and view more recent listings.”

Your Agent’s Role in Setting the Right Price

Instead, pricing it at or just below current market value from the start is a much better strategy. So how do you find that ideal asking price? You lean on the pros. Only an agent has the expertise needed to research and figure out the current market value for your home.

They’ll factor in the condition of your house, any upgrades you’ve made, and what other houses like yours are selling for in your area. And they’ll use all of that information to find that target number. The right price will bring in more buyers and make it more likely you’ll see multiple offers too. Plus, when homes are priced right, they still tend to sell quickly.

If you’re trying to sell your house, you may be looking at this spring season as the sweet spot – and you’re not wrong.

Even though you want to bring in top dollar when you sell, setting the asking price too high may deter buyers and slow down the sales process.

Connect with a local real estate agent to find the right price for your house, so we can maximize your profit and still draw in eager buyers willing to make competitive offers.

If you’re thinking about buying a home, let’s team up. That way, you’ll be up to date on everything that could affect your move, including how many homes are for sale right now.

One of the biggest hurdles buyers have faced over the past few years has been a lack of homes available for sale. But that’s starting to change.

The graph below uses the latest data from Realtor.com to show there are more homes on the market in 2024 than there have been in any of the past several years (2021-2023):

Does That Mean Finding a Home Is Easier?

The answer is yes, and no. As an article from Realtor.com says:

“There were nearly 15% more homes for sale in February than a year earlier . . . That alone could jolt the housing market a bit if more “For Sale” signs continue to appear. However, the nation is still suffering from a housing shortage even with all of that new inventory.”

Context is important. On the one hand, inventory is up over the past few years. That means you’ll likely have more options to choose from as you search for your next home.

But, at the same time, the graph above also shows there are still significantly fewer homes for sale than there would usually be in a more normal, pre-pandemic market. And that deficit isn’t going to be reversed overnight.

What Does This Mean for You?

You might find a few more choices now than in recent years, but you shouldn’t expect a ton of options.

To help you explore the growing list of choices you have now, team up with a local real estate agent you trust. They can really help you understand the inventory situation where you want to buy. That’s because real estate is local. An experienced agent can share some smart tips they’ve used to help other buyers in your area deal with ongoing low housing supply.

One of the biggest hurdles buyers have faced over the past few years has been a lack of homes available for sale.

If you’re thinking about buying a home, team up with a local real estate agent. That way, you’ll be up to date on everything that could affect your move, including how many homes are for sale right now.

No matter what you're planning, let’s team up to confidently navigate the busy spring housing market.

If you’re planning to move soon, you might be wondering if there'll be more homes to choose from, where prices and mortgage rates are headed, and how to navigate today’s market. If so, here's what the professionals are saying about what’s in store for this season.

Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist, First American:

“. . . it seems our general expectation for the spring is that we will see a pickup in inventory. In fact, that already seems to be happening. But it won’t necessarily be enough to satiate demand.”

Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist, Bright MLS:

“There is still strong demand, as the large millennial population remains in the prime first-time homebuying range.”

Danielle Hale, Chief Economist, Realtor.com:

“Where we are right now is the best of both worlds. Price increases are slowing, which is good for buyers, and prices are still relatively high, which is good for sellers.”

Skylar Olsen, Chief Economist, Zillow:

“There are slightly more homes for sale than this time last year, and there is still plenty of competition for well-priced houses. Buyers should prep their credit scores and sellers should prep their properties now, attractive listings are going pending in less than a month, and time on market will shrink in the weeks ahead.”

Jiayi Xu, Economist, Realtor.com:

“While mortgage rates remain elevated, home shoppers who are looking to buy this spring could find more affordable homes on the market than they saw at the same time last year. Specifically, there were 20.6% more homes available for sale ranging between $200,000 and $350,000 in February 2024 than a year ago, surpassing growth in other price ranges.”

If you’re looking to sell, this spring might be your sweet spot because there just aren’t many homes on the market. Sure, inventory is rising, but it’s nowhere near enough to meet today’s buyer demand. That’s why they’re still selling so quickly.

If you’re looking to buy, the growing number of homes for sale this spring means you’ll have more choices than this time last year. But be prepared to move quickly since there’ll be plenty of competition with other buyers.

If you’re planning to move soon, you might be wondering if there'll be more homes to choose from, where prices and mortgage rates are headed, and how to navigate today’s market.

No matter what you're planning, team up with a local real estate agent to confidently navigate the busy spring housing market.

Today’s housing market still favors sellers. If you’re ready to sell your house, let’s connect so you can start making your moves.

Thinking about selling your house and wondering if now’s a good time to do it? Here’s what you need to know. Even though the number of homes for sale has been growing this year, there still aren’t enough homes on the market for all the buyers who want to buy.

So, what does that mean for you? To keep it simple, it means it’s still a seller’s market. Here’s how it works:

• A neutral market is when supply and demand is balanced. Basically, there are enough homes to meet buyer demand based on the current sales pace, and home prices hold fairly steady.
• A buyer’s market is when there are more homes for sale than there are buyers. When that happens, buyers have more negotiation power because sellers are willing to make compromises to close the deal. In a buyer’s market, sellers may have to do price cuts to re-ignite interest in their home, and prices may go down. But we haven’t seen this for years since there are so few homes available to buy.
• In a seller’s market, it’s just the opposite. When the supply of homes for sale is as low as it is right now, it’s much harder for buyers to find homes to purchase. That creates increased competition among purchasers which can lead to more bidding wars. And if buyers know they may be entering a bidding war, they’re going to do their best to submit a very attractive offer upfront. This could drive the final sale price of your house up.

The graph below uses data from the National Association of Realtors to show just how deep into seller’s market territory we still are today:

What Does This Mean for You?

The market is still working in your favor. If you lean on an agent for advice on how to get your house list ready and how to price it competitively, it should get a lot of attention from eager buyers. That means you’ll likely get multiple offers and see your house sell quickly and for top dollar. As a recent article from Ramsey Solutions explains:

“A seller’s market is when demand for homes is higher than the supply of homes. And that’s still the case right now. If you’re planning to sell your house, you can expect to sell it fairly quickly for close to your asking price—as long as your asking price is realistic for the current market.”

Thinking about selling your house and wondering if now’s a good time to do it?

Today’s housing market still favors sellers. If you’re ready to sell your house, connect with a local real estate advisor so you can start making your moves.

If you haven’t found a home you love that’s in your budget, it may be worth thinking through all your options, including fixer-uppers. Sometimes the perfect home for you is the one you perfect after buying it. To see what’s available in our area, let’s connect.

If you’re trying to buy a home and are having a hard time finding one you can afford, it may be time to consider a fixer-upper. That’s a house that needs a little elbow grease or some updates, but has good bones. Fixer-uppers can be a really great option if you’re looking to break into the housing market or want to stretch your budget further. According to NerdWallet:

“Buying a fixer-upper can provide a path to homeownership for first-time home buyers or a way for repeat buyers to afford a larger home or a better neighborhood. With the relatively low inventory of homes for sale these days, a move-in ready home can be hard to find, especially if you’re on a budget.”

Basically, since the number of homes for sale is still so low, if you’re only willing to tour homes that have all your dream features, you may be cutting down your options too much and making it harder on yourself than necessary. It may be time to cast a wider net.

Sometimes the perfect home is the one you perfect after buying it.

Here’s some information that can help you pinpoint what you truly need so you can be strategic in your home search. First, make a list of all the features you want in a home. From there, work to break those features into categories like this:

• Must-Haves - If a house doesn’t have these features, it won’t work for you and your lifestyle.
• Nice-To-Haves - These are features you’d love to have but can live without. Nice-to-haves aren’t dealbreakers, but if you find a home that hits all the must-haves and some of these, it’s a contender.
• Dream State - This is where you can really think big. Again, these aren’t features you’ll need, but if you find a home in your budget that has all the must-haves, most of the nice-to-haves, and any of these, it’s a clear winner.

Once you’ve sorted your list in a way that works for you, share it with your real estate agent. They’ll help you find homes that deliver on your top needs right now and have the potential to be your dream home with a little bit of sweat equity. Lean on their expertise as you think through what’s possible, what features are easy to change or add, and how to make it happen. According to Progressive:

“Many real estate agents specialize in finding fixer-uppers and have a network of inspectors, contractors, electricians, and the like.”

Your agent can also offer advice on which upgrades and renovations will set you up to get the greatest return on your investment if you ever decide to sell down the line.

If you’re trying to buy a home and are having a hard time finding one you can afford, it may be time to consider a fixer-upper.

If you haven’t found a home you love that’s in your budget, it may be worth thinking through all your options, including fixer-uppers. Sometimes the perfect home for you is the one you perfect after buying it. To see what’s available in your area, connect with a local real estate agent.

Want to save money in retirement? Consider downsizing – it could really help you out. When you’re ready, let’s connect about your goals in the housing market this year.

If you’re taking a look at your expenses as you retire, saving money where you can has a lot of appeal. One long-standing, popular way to do that is by downsizing to a smaller home.

When you think about cutting down on your spending, odds are you think of frequent purchases, like groceries and other goods. But when you downsize your house, you often end up downsizing the bills that come with it, like your mortgage payment, energy costs, and maintenance requirements. Realtor.com shares:

“A smaller home typically means lower bills and less upkeep. Then there’s the potential windfall that comes from selling your larger home and buying something smaller.”

That windfall is thanks to your home equity. If you’ve been in your house for a while, odds are you’ve built up a considerable amount of equity. And that equity is something you can use to help you buy a home that better fits your needs today. Daniel Hunt, CFA at Morgan Stanley, explains:

“Home equity can be a significant source of wealth for retirees, often representing a large portion of their net worth. . . . Retirement planning can be complex, but your home equity shouldn't be overlooked.”

And when you’re ready to use that equity to fuel your next move, your real estate agent will be your guide through every step of the process. That includes setting the right price for your current house when you sell, finding the home that best fits your evolving needs, and understanding what you can afford at today’s mortgage rate.

What This Means for You

If you’re thinking about downsizing, ask yourself these questions:

• Do the original reasons I bought my current house still stand, or have my needs changed since then?
• Do I really need and want the space I have right now, or could somewhere smaller be a better fit?
• What are my housing expenses right now, and how much do I want to try to save by downsizing?

Then, meet with a real estate agent to get an answer to this one: What are my options in the market right now? A local real estate agent can walk you through how much equity you have in your house and how it positions you to win when you downsize.

If you’re taking a look at your expenses as you retire, saving money where you can has a lot of appeal.

Want to save money in retirement? Consider downsizing – it could really help you out. When you’re ready, connect with a local real estate agent about your goals in the housing market this year.

Most experts now think we won't have a recession in the next year. They also don't expect a big jump in the unemployment rate. That means you don’t need to fear a flood of foreclosures that would cause the housing market to crash.

There’s been a lot of recession talk over the past couple of years. And that may leave you worried we’re headed for a repeat of what we saw back in 2008. Here’s a look at the latest expert projections to show you why that isn’t going to happen.  

According to Jacob Channel, Senior Economist at LendingTree, the economy’s pretty strong:

“At least right now, the fundamentals of the economy, despite some hiccups, are doing pretty good. While things are far from perfect, the economy is probably doing better than people want to give it credit for.”

That might be why a recent survey from the Wall Street Journal shows only 39% of economists think there’ll be a recession in the next year. That’s way down from 61% projecting a recession just one year ago (see graph below):

Most experts believe there won’t be a recession in the next 12 months. One reason why is the current unemployment rate. Let’s compare where we are now with historical data from Macrotrends, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), and Trading Economics. When we do, it’s clear the unemployment rate today is still very low (see graph below):

The orange bar shows the average unemployment rate since 1948 is about 5.7%. The red bar shows that right after the financial crisis in 2008, when the housing market crashed, the unemployment rate was up to 8.3%. Both of those numbers are much larger than the unemployment rate this January (shown in blue).

But will the unemployment rate go up? To answer that, look at the graph below. It uses data from that same Wall Street Journal survey to show what the experts are projecting for unemployment over the next three years compared to the long-term average (see graph below):

As you can see, economists don’t expect the unemployment rate to even come close to the long-term average over the next three years – much less the 8.3% we saw when the market last crashed.

Still, if these projections are correct, there will be people who lose their jobs next year. Anytime someone’s out of work, that’s a tough situation, not just for the individual, but also for their friends and loved ones. But the big question is: will enough people lose their jobs to create a flood of foreclosures that could crash the housing market?

Looking ahead, projections show the unemployment rate will likely stay below the 75-year average. That means you shouldn't expect a wave of foreclosures that would impact the housing market in a big way.

There’s been a lot of recession talk over the past couple of years.

Most experts now think we won't have a recession in the next year. They also don't expect a big jump in the unemployment rate. That means you don’t need to fear a flood of foreclosures that would cause the housing market to crash.